The main risks of Bitcoin ETF investment

1. Market fluctuations

• Description: Bitcoin prices fluctuate greatly, with fluctuations of 30% to 60% being common. As of May 14, 2025, Bitcoin is trading between $103,000 and $110,000, but analysts predict a 30% pullback after the expected peak of $180,000. Historical corrections (such as -88% in 2022) highlight potential losses.
• Impact of ETF: Spot ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC, which directly track the price of Bitcoin, magnify both profits and losses. For example, a 30% decrease in Bitcoin could result in a $10,000 investment in IBIT decreasing by $3,000.
• Background: Compared to DEGEN (which has dropped 88.9% from its all-time high) and other altcoins, Bitcoin's $2 trillion market value is relatively stable, but ETFs are still riskier than traditional assets such as stocks or bonds.

2. Expense ratio and expenses

• DescriptionThe expense ratio of Bitcoin ETF reduces net income. IBIT and FBTC charge 0.25% (charging $2.50 per $1,000 per year), while Grayscale's GBTC charges 1.50% (charging $15 per $1,000). Promotional waivers (e.g., IBIT's 0.12%, until the asset under management reaches $5 billion or mid-2025) may expire, thereby increasing costs.
• Impact of ETF: The high fees accumulate over time, eroding profits, especially for long-term holders. One reason for the $21 billion outflow of GBTC in 2024 is its 1.50% fee, favoring cheaper alternatives such as Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust (0.15%).
• Context: ETF fees are lower than the trading fees on cryptocurrency exchanges (0.5-2%), but investors must compare ETFs (e.g., IBIT vs. BTC) to reduce costs, as shown in your previous fee ratio survey.

3. Regulatory Uncertainty

• Description: By 2025, under the leadership of Paul Atkins, the Securities and Exchange Commission has shown a positive attitude towards cryptocurrencies and supports the approval of ETFs (for example, the probability of Solana ETF is 90%, XRP is 85%), but regulatory risks still exist. Potential changes in tax policies, anti-money laundering/counter-terrorism financing regulations, or global frameworks (such as the EU's MiCA, which will take effect in January 2025) may affect the operation of ETFs.
• Impact of ETF: New regulations may increase compliance costs, raise expense ratios, or restrict ETF access. Policy reversals after the 2026 election could delay the approval of leveraged or multi-asset ETFs, affecting funds similar to IBIT.
• Context: ETF比非监管的DEGEN和其他替代币更安全，但投资者必须监控sec.govEspecially for the upcoming physical redemption proposal (June 2025), this update is particularly important.

4. Counterparty and Custodial Risks

• Description: Bitcoin ETF relies on custodians holding the underlying Bitcoins (e.g., Coinbase Prime for IBIT, self-custody for FBTC). Custodial failure, hacker attacks, or bankruptcy bring risks, as evidenced by historical exchange incidents (e.g., the Mt. Gox incident in 2014).
• ETF Impact: Improper custody may disrupt the operation of ETFs, delay redemption, or result in losses. While regulated custodians can mitigate risks, no ETF is immune to operational errors.
• Context: Self-custody of FBTC reduces third-party risks compared to IBIT, aligning with your interest in the ETF mechanism. Please verify the custody audit on the issuer's website (e.g., [blackrock.com]).

5. Tracking error and liquidity issues

• Description: ETFs are designed to track the price of Bitcoin, but tracking errors may occur due to expenses, rebalancing, or market inefficiencies. ETFs with lower liquidity (e.g., ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, which manages assets of about $1 billion) may have larger bid-ask spreads, increasing trading costs.
• The impact of ETF on the market: Tracking error will reduce returns, especially in volatile markets. Smaller ETFs like ARKB face higher spreads than IBIT (AUM $5.65 billion, daily net inflow $53 million), affecting cost efficiency.
• Context: An ETF with high liquidity, such as IBIT as you mentioned earlier, can minimize this risk, but investors should check the trading volume on [etf.com].

6. Taxation and Reporting Complexity

• DescriptionThe profit of the Bitcoin ETF is calculated according to the capital gains specified by the IRS (15-20% for holding period over 1 year) and detailed trading records are required. Unlike direct cryptocurrencies, ETFs simplify reporting through Form 1099, but tax regulations are still complex.
• ETF's Impact on the Market: Misreporting income can lead to fines. Frequent trading (such as within a week when Bitcoin rises by 13.7%) will increase tax burden and reduce net profits.
• background: Tax tools like KoinX related to your Bitcoin investment guide can be helpful, but investors must consult a registered accountant to ensure compliance.

Reduce risk

When managing the risk of Bitcoin ETF in 2025, please consider the following strategies:

Exposure Limit

• According to Larry Fink of BlackRock, allocate 1-2% of your investment portfolio to limit volatility impact (e.g., investing $100-500 in Bit).

Choose low-cost ETFs

• Choose IBIT (0.25%, 0.12% exemption) or BTC (0.15%) instead of GBTC (1.50%); verify the fees on [etf.com].

Using Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

• Investing a fixed amount weekly (e.g., $50) to reduce volatility, as Bitcoin still has 30-60% volatility.

Monitoring and regulation

• Track submissions to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission [sec.gov] and update X times@Cointelegraph,@NateGeraciFor ETF approval or policy changes (e.g., physical redemptions by June 2025).

Choose highly liquid ETFs

• First consider IBIT or FBTC to get smaller spreads; check NAV and trading volume on Yahoo Finance.

Secure Account

• Enable two-factor authentication on brokerage accounts (e.g. Fidelity, Schwab); avoid sharing login details.

Tax Plan

• Use KoinX or TurboTax to track earnings; consult a registered accountant for cryptocurrency tax regulations.

Avoid speculation

• Ignore the claim that 'Bitcoin reaching $1 million based on X'; focus on fundamentals such as Bitcoin's 21 million supply limit, as discussed in the query you mentioned earlier.

Conclusion

By 2025, investing in Bitcoin ETFs, such as IBIT (managing assets of $56.5 billion) or FBTC, offers regulated exposure to Bitcoin, with prices exceeding $103,000. However, risks include volatility, fees, regulatory changes, custody issues, tracking errors, and tax complexities, requiring caution. Compared to highly volatile alternative coins (such as DEGEN) or staking risks in Ethereum (e.g. Obol Network), ETFs are safer but not risk-free. Allocate 1-2% of the investment portfolio to low-cost ETFs and use DCA to mitigate risks. Monitor ETF performance on etf.com, track Bitcoin prices on coinmarketcap.com, and stay informed.@coinbureauGet updates on X. With smart strategies, investors can effectively manage the risks of Bitcoin ETFs.

Disclaimer:
Cryptocurrency investment carries extremely high risks. It is recommended to conduct thorough research, data verification, and risk assessment before investing.