Daily News | Bitcoin Will Exceed $40K Within 2023, ETFs’ Approval May Bring In Over $70 Billion In Inflows, Blast TVL Exceeded $300 Million

Crypto Daily Digest: Bitcoin will exceed $40.000 within 2023, Blast TVL will exceed $300 million

On November 24th, according to Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen, the result of Binance’s settlement was lighter than the expected $10 billion fine, and there were no accusations of misappropriation of user funds or market manipulation, indicating that Binance may still be one of the top three trading platforms for the next 2 to 3 years.

Although Binance’s news was initially seen as a risk aversion event, Bitcoin only experienced a brief correction, rebounding from the $36,000 level. In the robust counter-trend reaction, “Bitcoin’s rise to $40,000 is inevitable.”

Thielen added: We expect an 80% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $38,000 by the end of this month, and a 90% probability that it will rise to $40,000 in December.

Recently, researchers from blockchain data company Glassnode pointed out in a report released on November 20th that the influx of large demand will challenge the relatively limited supply of mobile Bitcoin, potentially expanding volatility.

The study pointed out that there is a significant suppressed demand for spot Bitcoin ETF products, and it is estimated that stock, bond, and gold investors only need to allocate a small portion of assets, and there will be up to $70.5 billion of funds flowing into the market; Even more conservative predictions suggest that tens of billions of dollars will enter the market in the first few years.

Glassnode’s research report explains that in order to understand the market dynamics that may arise after the launch of ETFs, attention needs to be shifted to the available supply of Bitcoin. The analysis emphasizes how long-term accumulation tightens the supply of Bitcoin circulation.

Currently, over 76% of Bitcoin is held for a long time, concentrated in holders who are less responsive to price fluctuations. The supply of short-term and active traders has recently hit a new low in many years.

Recently, BLUR’s L2 project, Blast, has received the most attention from the market. According to Twitter user residue monitoring, 102,865 ETHs ($212 million) were deposited into Blast within 2 days. Among them, 9 addresses with a deposit volume of ≥ 1000 ETH were deposited, and a total of 25,184 ETHs ($51.97 million) were deposited into these 9 addresses, accounting for 1/4 of the total ETH deposit volume. Among them, the first place deposited 10.000 ETHs.

According to DeBank data, Blur founder Pacman’s Layer 2 Network Blast contract address currently holds a total asset value of over $300 million. Among them, ETH worth $257 million is deposited into Lido, assets worth $41.65 million are deposited into the Maker protocol, and approximately $1.48 million is in the wallet.

On November 23rd, according to Greeks. live data, 108000 BTC options will expire tomorrow, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.83, a maximum pain point of $33.000, and a nominal value of $4.04 billion. 1.2 million ETH options will expire tomorrow, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.71, a maximum pain point of $1700, and a nominal value of $2.47 billion.

The biggest event for cryptocurrency this week is undoubtedly the settlement between Binance and the US Department of Justice, which brought volatility and significantly increased RV.

The monthly delivery is about to take place, and the biggest pain point of this delivery is relatively far from the exercise price. The seller’s position loss caused by this round of sharp rise is about to be settled through delivery. The annual delivery is about to enter, and as Christmas approaches, trading may enter a low period.

In addition, Glassnode data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin circulation supply that has not been active for more than a year reached 70.35%, surpassing the peak of 69.35% in July and reaching a new historical high. The percentage of supply that has not been transferred to the chain within 2, 3, and 5 years is also at its highest historical levels. This indicates that even if Bitcoin has more than doubled this year to $37,000, long-term investors’ willingness to sell is not strong.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

The short-term head and shoulders top structure has been disrupted, with continued upward movement this week towards the key resistance level of $37,980. The mid-term structure has reversed, forming a W-bottom pattern. It is still possible to continue making dual statements within the converging triangle range: a breakthrough of $37,980 suggests further upward movement to $40,500 and $42,015. Caution is advised for short positions if they fall below the upward trend, as breaching the $40,000 level could disrupt the market structure.

ETH

The four-hour chart has completely broken through the large downward trend, with a short-term bottom pattern and ongoing consolidation. If a bearish structure is established, a retest of $1,857 is possible. Aggressive bearish positions can be sustained, but attention should be paid to maintaining resistance. The bullish trend continues to watch for a potential pullback to the $2,037 neckline. In the short term, a complex double bottom structure has formed, with potential for four advances to the $2,135 resistance, and a breakthrough sets up a layout to the top target of $2,381.

BNB

Short-term volume is notably weak, and it has not retested the key support level of $246. The dichotomy between bulls and bears remains at the $246 neckline, and a failure to stabilize in the short term may continue testing the low support of $221.3. Caution is recommended if the short-term falls below $221.3, and long-term caution is advised if it falls below $203.6.

Macro: Thanksgiving market closed, US bond yields may have peaked, with a 95% probability of not raising interest rates in December

On Thursday, the US dollar index fell first and then rose, reaching an intraday high of 103.92 in the US market. It then took back all its gains and ultimately closed down 0.11% at 103.76.

Spot gold briefly approached the $2,000 mark during the European trading session, but failed to reach this level and ended up 0.15% higher at $1,993 per ounce; Spot silver suddenly rose in late trading, ending up 1.03% higher at $23.87 per ounce.

Impacted by OPEC+ changing the previously postponed meeting to an online meeting, the price continued to decline within two days. WTI crude oil fell to an intraday low of $75.26, then regained some of its lost ground and ultimately closed 0.57% lower at $76.32 per barrel; Brent crude oil briefly hit the $80 mark in the market, but eventually rebounded, closing 0.59% lower at $81.05 per barrel.

US stocks and bonds are closed for one day due to Thanksgiving. In terms of US debt, senior utives of Goldman Sachs said that the yield curve of US treasury bond bonds is expected to be steeper in the long run, driven by the increase in fiscal expenditure.

Ashok Varadhan, co-head of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs, said in a company podcast, “Fiscal spending has not decreased, and we feel strange that even with high employment rates, we can still spend so much.” Varadhan said, “It feels like we won’t see fiscal discipline soon… it’s hard to see a significant decline in long-term bond yields. Therefore, our trading department’s basic scenario prediction is that we expect the yield curve to be more normalized and steeper, but in reality, the short-term bond yield will be more normalized and lower, and there will be no significant decline in the long-term bond yield.”

Jim Esposito, another co-head of the department, stated that over the past six months, demand for long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased among central banks, regional US banks, and sovereign wealth funds. “All major central banks have shifted from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening,” he said. “Regional banks in the United States were once one of the largest holders of US Treasury bonds, and these banks were struggling due to mismatched maturities, so their enthusiasm in recent auctions has declined significantly.”

Esposito stated that sovereign wealth funds, especially those in China, have been less active, partly due to geopolitical tensions with the United States and a slowdown in international trade. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report on Tuesday that US bond yields are likely to have peaked, and rising yields have made fixed-income assets more attractive before the expected easing of monetary policy next year.

They said, “Our economists believe that most central banks will start cutting interest rates next year, albeit at a slower pace. This should drive more cash to be deployed in bonds and stocks, with $8 trillion in cash currently held in money market funds.”

The latest news on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is that on November 24th, according to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation,” the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% - 5.50% range in December is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike is 4.7%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by February next year is 89.4%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 25 basis points is 10.3%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 50 basis points is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate reduction by March next year is 21.5%, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 70.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate increase is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate increase is 0.2%.