Markets are focused on US inflation: critical minutes for Bitcoin

Markets are awaiting the US inflation data, which will be announced today at 15:30 Turkish time and will guide the Fed's monetary policy.

Forecasts suggest that inflation will increase by 2.4% on an annual basis in April. On a monthly basis, both inflation and core inflation are expected to rise by 0.3%. Last month, a decrease of 0.1% was recorded on a monthly basis. This month's increase expectation is partly due to consumers turning to car purchases before customs duties come into effect, thereby increasing demand.

Today’s data is expected to show the first hints of the impact of Trump’s tariff policy. On the other hand, the markets were pricing in two or three rate cuts from the Fed this year, but inflation coming in higher than expected could result in a slower reduction of interest rates.

"There are pre-data profit taking"

After the recent increases observed in Bitcoin and stocks, it seems that the price movements have slowed down. Strategist Evelyne Gomez-Liechti at the global banking institution Mizuho commented on this situation, stating, "The relief rally caused by developments related to trade started to calm down overnight. These movements indicate profit-taking and consolidation ahead of today's CPI data. We believe there is more room for movement."

The higher-than-expected announcement of US inflation data may create concerns that the Fed's pace of easing its interest rate policy could slow down, potentially limiting risk appetite. In this case, short-term fluctuations may be observed in risky assets such as Bitcoin. On the other hand, if the data unexpectedly comes in lower and expectations for interest rate cuts strengthen, it could support the perception of "more abundant liquidity" in the markets, increasing demand for Bitcoin and triggering upward movements in prices.

You can follow the US inflation data live on our YouTube channel starting today at 15:15:

Published: May 13, 2025 13:44