Tariff concerns once again shook Wall Street, with the S&P 500 entering a correction zone, falling to its lowest point in six months. BTC ETF inflows also dropped from a peak of $40 billion to $35 billion. However, retail investors have not lost confidence and continue to invest in the stock market. Many people always believe that retail investors are contrarian indicators, unless retail investors have exited, the market will not bottom out. Can retail investors turn the stock market around this time?
BTC ETF cumulative net inflows have fallen from 400 billion to 350 billion US dollars
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared the BTC ETF net inflows chart, with inflows dropping from a peak of $40 billion to $35 billion. He believes that based on the $115 billion in assets under management, this means that despite a painful 25% fall, over 95% of the cash inflows still remain strong, showing how the baby boomer generation is navigating like a duck paddling in the water.
In addition, Balchunas also posted the behavior of the baby boomers in the US stock ETFs since 2019. Even under the sharp fall in 2020, 2022, and so far this year, funds continue to flow in. He emphasized that this is not stupid money, but wealth creation. These people did not choose to exit, the US stock market is still their main investment, and BTC is like a little bit of hot sauce, making life interesting and healing the potential future FOMO.
Retail investor still not in the game, has the market not bottomed out?
Additionally, according to Bloomberg, despite the trade war initiated by Trump causing the US stock market to fall into a correction phase, retail investors have not lost confidence.
J.P. Morgan's global quant and derivatives strategist Emma Wu said that in the week ending Wednesday, so-called retail investors poured $7.3 billion into the stock market and increased their holdings of long-popular stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia. Retail investors did not back down and also poured billions of dollars into leveraged exchange-traded funds to amplify the returns of popular funds such as the Nasdaq 100 Index or Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF ARKK.
Many people always consider retail investor as a contrarian indicator, individual investors are often the last to sell stocks. Therefore, unless retail investor has exited, the market will not hit bottom.
But as money continues to flow in, this seems still far away. Senior strategist Jim Paulsen said that as of February, individual stock holdings exceeded cash positions by more than 50%, more than twice the average low point of the S&P 500 index since 1988, excluding bear markets.
Eric Balchunas and Gina Martin Adams of Bloomberg Industry Research stated that overall, ETFs with triple the reference index or ETFs had received $2.7 billion in new bets last week, with the majority focused on depressed and high-growth indices or industries.
Many people have become accustomed to buying on dips, and this strategy has been effective for the past 15 years, so it may require even greater effort to make them sell.
Is this retail investor still a contrarian indicator? Or is there a chance to defeat institutional investors again? Let's wait and see!
Is the 'retail investor contrarian indicator' still valid as retail investors continue to buy low and the market has not yet bottomed out? This article first appeared on ChainNews ABMedia.
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Retail investor continues to buy at low levels, the market has not yet bottomed out, is the 'retail investor contrarian indicator' still effective?
Tariff concerns once again shook Wall Street, with the S&P 500 entering a correction zone, falling to its lowest point in six months. BTC ETF inflows also dropped from a peak of $40 billion to $35 billion. However, retail investors have not lost confidence and continue to invest in the stock market. Many people always believe that retail investors are contrarian indicators, unless retail investors have exited, the market will not bottom out. Can retail investors turn the stock market around this time?
BTC ETF cumulative net inflows have fallen from 400 billion to 350 billion US dollars
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared the BTC ETF net inflows chart, with inflows dropping from a peak of $40 billion to $35 billion. He believes that based on the $115 billion in assets under management, this means that despite a painful 25% fall, over 95% of the cash inflows still remain strong, showing how the baby boomer generation is navigating like a duck paddling in the water.
In addition, Balchunas also posted the behavior of the baby boomers in the US stock ETFs since 2019. Even under the sharp fall in 2020, 2022, and so far this year, funds continue to flow in. He emphasized that this is not stupid money, but wealth creation. These people did not choose to exit, the US stock market is still their main investment, and BTC is like a little bit of hot sauce, making life interesting and healing the potential future FOMO.
Retail investor still not in the game, has the market not bottomed out?
Additionally, according to Bloomberg, despite the trade war initiated by Trump causing the US stock market to fall into a correction phase, retail investors have not lost confidence.
J.P. Morgan's global quant and derivatives strategist Emma Wu said that in the week ending Wednesday, so-called retail investors poured $7.3 billion into the stock market and increased their holdings of long-popular stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia. Retail investors did not back down and also poured billions of dollars into leveraged exchange-traded funds to amplify the returns of popular funds such as the Nasdaq 100 Index or Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF ARKK.
Many people always consider retail investor as a contrarian indicator, individual investors are often the last to sell stocks. Therefore, unless retail investor has exited, the market will not hit bottom.
But as money continues to flow in, this seems still far away. Senior strategist Jim Paulsen said that as of February, individual stock holdings exceeded cash positions by more than 50%, more than twice the average low point of the S&P 500 index since 1988, excluding bear markets.
Eric Balchunas and Gina Martin Adams of Bloomberg Industry Research stated that overall, ETFs with triple the reference index or ETFs had received $2.7 billion in new bets last week, with the majority focused on depressed and high-growth indices or industries.
Many people have become accustomed to buying on dips, and this strategy has been effective for the past 15 years, so it may require even greater effort to make them sell.
Is this retail investor still a contrarian indicator? Or is there a chance to defeat institutional investors again? Let's wait and see!
Is the 'retail investor contrarian indicator' still valid as retail investors continue to buy low and the market has not yet bottomed out? This article first appeared on ChainNews ABMedia.