Another bullish signal? Bitcoin's 200-day moving average is approaching a new all-time high

By Mary Liu, BitpushNews

On Tuesday, Crypto Assets markets were mixed, with Bitcoin long and short evenly matched after the Halving event, trading steadily above $66,000.

market capitalization the top 200 alts pump fall swapped, with seven Token recording double-digit pump. Hedera (HBAR) led the pump with a pump of 40.4%, followed by cat in a dogs world (MEW) with pump of 31.9% and Akash Network pump with 24.2%. The stablecoin project, Ethena (ENA), had the largest fall at 7.7% for fall, Ontology (ONT) fall for 7.6% and Jito (JTO) fall for 5.8%.

The overall market capitalization of Crypto Assets is currently $2.45 trillion, with Bitcoin dominating 53.4%.

At the close, the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed higher, pumping 1.20%, 0.69% and 1.59%, respectively. The U.S. dollar index falls 0.4% on the day.

The Bitcoin 200-day moving average is approaching an all-time high

Secure Digital Markets analysts said: "Bitcoin has recently rebounded from an rising trend line and is currently trying to break through the short-term resistance level of around $67,500. And the release of US manufacturing and services PMI data this morning spurred a surge in risk assets. 」

Analysts also said Bitcoin's 200-day MA, a key indicator of long-term trends, is approaching new all-time highs, challenging its February 2022 peak of $49,452. Past data show that after this value exceeds the previous peak, the most intense phase of the Bull Market cycle unfolds, that is, when the indicator rises to a new high, the price of the Bitcoin rises pump.

At the beginning of November 2020, six months after the third Halving, Bitcoin's 200-day MA rose above its then-high of $10,320. By mid-April 2021, Bitcoin had pumped 4.5 times to $63,800.

After the December 2016 MA hit a new high (five months after the second Halving), BTC surged more than 200% in 12 months to nearly $20,000. In November 2012, around the time of the first halving, after the moving average rose to new highs, there was a similar rapid rebound.

Short-term weakness, long-term bullish

However, historical performance is not indicative of future results.

Matt Ballensweig, head of network at BitGo, said in a note: "In the short term, Bitcoin's price action after Halving tends to be fairly calm. The increase in newly mined Bitcoin per day after the Halving is 450 BTC, which is barely enough to affect daily liquidity or immediate price action, in fact, miners may even need to sell some of their existing BTC inventory to offset the reduction in daily revenue, resulting in increased selling pressure in the days/weeks following the event. 」

Ballensweig believes that in the long run, the daily reduction in supply totals 164,000 BTC ($12 billion) per year, which, combined with net new demand for Bitcoin from ETFs, could cause the price of Bitcoin to pump significantly in the long run. The data confirms this, as the average return of Bitcoin in the month following all historical Halving events is just 1.67%, while the average return of Bitcoin in the year following the Halving event is as high as 3,211%, highlighting the difference between short-term and long-term impacts.

Steven Lubka, Head of Private Accounts at Swan Bitcoin, agrees with Ballensweig that "the impact of the Halving is more pronounced in the medium to long term".

"At current prices, about $30 million a day is unsold, which may not seem long every day, but over time, the volume can increase significantly, for example, $1 billion in a long month and $12 billion in a year long," Lubka said. 」

"Reduced supply has a mechanical impact and pushes up prices," Lubka said. In addition, Halving is Bitcoin's built-in marketing, attracting new users and creating a reflective social layer that further drives up the price through increased demand. Ultimately, the combination of guaranteed supply reduction and social impact drives Bitcoin's long-term bullish. 」

As the market waits for the next catalyst to bring Crypto Assets back into rise trend, MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe said any pullback above $60,000 Bitcoin fall a "huge buying opportunity."