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Recently, the Crypto Assets market has experienced significant Fluctuation due to remarks from Fed officials. However, a comprehensive analysis indicates that there is still a considerable possibility of an interest rate cut in September. The market's focus is on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting, as well as the upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report at the end of this month and on September 6. The Fed will announce the final interest rate decision at 2 AM on September 18, and prior to that, the market is expected to maintain a wide-ranging oscillation.
Interest rate cuts, as a key variable, will directly affect the sustainability of the bull market. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, the market may experience a rapid rise, approaching the peak of this bull market. However, as the number of rate cuts increases, the magnitude of the rise may gradually weaken. The overall bull market cycle may end after several rounds of rate cuts, presenting a "policy-driven top" characteristic. If there is no rate cut in September, the market may instead continue its upward trend until the end of the year or early next year. Although there may be repeated fluctuations during this period, each pullback could become a good opportunity for positioning.
For investors, the market fluctuation may intensify from now until September 18, but one should not panic due to short-term volatility. If the interest rate is lowered, the first wave of increase may be a good time to reduce positions; if there is no rate cut, it may be worth considering a more aggressive layout in low sectors. It is noteworthy that although this round of bull market has not ended, the opportunity window is narrowing, and seizing core opportunities is more important than frequent trading.
Overall, the crypto assets market is at a critical juncture, and investors need to closely follow the Fed's policy trends and changes in economic data, while remaining calm and rational, and formulating appropriate investment strategies.