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Fed Chairman Powell recently made a series of notable remarks, triggering widespread follow in the market. He pointed out that the current job market is facing downside risks, a statement that suggests the U.S. economy may be experiencing some uncertainty. At the same time, Powell announced the data for July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, which rose by 2.6% year-on-year, a figure that still has a certain gap from the Fed's inflation target.
Powell also described the current economic environment as a 'severe situation', a phrasing that has sparked speculation in the market about a possible adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy. Market traders reacted quickly to this, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now expected to have risen to 90%. This significant increase in expectations reflects the strong anticipation among market participants for a shift in Fed policy.
It is worth noting that Powell's remarks seem to open the door for a possible rate cut in September. This signal has led to significant volatility in major financial instruments, indicating that the market is highly sensitive to changes in Fed policy.
Overall, Powell's remarks appear to be cautious and vague, which can be interpreted as neutral to dovish. He seems to be trying to balance the relationship between economic risks and policy adjustments, leaving ample space for future decisions. This strategically ambiguous position not only reflects the Fed's concerns about the economic situation but also maintains policy flexibility.
As economic data continues to be updated and the global financial environment changes, the market will continue to closely follow every move of the Fed and the potential impact of these moves on the prices of various assets. Regardless, Powell's remarks this time have undoubtedly stirred up waves in the financial market, and the subsequent effects are worth further observation.