As Fed Chair Powell is about to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the financial markets have shown subtle changes in expectations regarding the future direction of Fed monetary policy. The latest CME "Fed Watch" data shows that market expectations for a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September have cooled, with the probability dropping from previous highs to 71.3%, while the likelihood of keeping the current interest rate unchanged has risen to 28.7%.

This trend is also reflected in the longer term. Looking ahead to October, the market believes that the probability of the Fed maintaining a stable interest rate is 14.6%, while the cumulative probabilities of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut are 50.4% and 35.1%, respectively. These data reflect that investors' confidence in the Fed adopting a loose monetary policy in the coming months has been somewhat shaken.

It is worth noting that the next two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of the Fed are scheduled for September 17 and October 29. These two meetings will be critical moments in determining the direction of U.S. monetary policy, and market participants will closely watch the outcomes of these meetings and their potential impact on the global economy.

The complexity of current economic data and the uncertainty of the global geopolitical situation may affect the Fed's decision-making. Therefore, Powell's speech at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will undoubtedly become the focus of the market, and his remarks may provide new guidance for market expectations regarding future Intrerest Rate trends.