Bitcoin's bull-bear showdown at $113,000! Discrepancies in the options market before Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping by 15% igniting safe-haven sentiment.

Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and Bitcoin traders are on high alert. The options market shows a key strike price densely distributed between $110,000 and $120,000, with a negative 25 Delta skew indicator suggesting rising demand for call options, but the skew value has decreased over the past 24 hours, reflecting cautious sentiment in the market. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has fallen to 75%, down more than 15% from last week, and if the rate cut expectations fall through, Bitcoin may face a significant pullback.

Options market signals are split: bullish preference coexists with capital withdrawal.

Deribit data shows that Bitcoin options open interest and trading volume are highly concentrated at strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000, forming a short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. The negative 25 Delta skew indicator suggests that traders are paying a premium for call options, indicating a structural bullish tendency. However, the skew value has slightly decreased in the past 24 hours, suggesting that some funds are choosing to stay on the sidelines before Powell's speech. Bitcoin is currently reported around $113,000, with a weekly decline of nearly 5%, reaching a two-week low.

Powell's Dilemma: Balancing Political Pressure and Data Dependence

This speech is considered a high-risk decision for Powell:

• Political pressure: Calls for the Fed to lower interest rates to 1% are growing louder.
• Data Dilemma: Last week's PPI data fell short of expectations and core inflation rose, weakening the rationale for interest rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4%-4.25% target range in September is 75%, but this dropped more than 15% compared to before the PPI data was released.

Institutional judgment: Neutral statement may trigger market volatility

Haonan Li, CEO of Codex, a crypto infrastructure company supported by Circle and Coinbase (former head of cryptoeconomics at OP Labs), predicts:

Powell is likely to maintain a "technical gray attitude" — keeping a data-dependent neutral stance without committing to a rate cut in September. This aligns with the views of options analysts contacted by Decrypt, reflecting a lack of optimism from institutions regarding the meeting's outcome. Santiment data shows that short-term investors who purchased Bitcoin in the past 30/60/90 days are currently at a loss or breaking even; if rate cut expectations fail, risk assets could see a significant decline.

On-chain whale activity: $75 million swapped for Ethereum

Notable on-chain dynamics: A certain Bitcoin whale recently sold $75 million worth of BTC to go long on Ethereum. This "abandoning Bitcoin for Ethereum" move may be related to the ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounding from a bottom, and could also reflect the cautious attitude of large holders towards Bitcoin's short-term trend. Unity Wallet COO James Toledano reminds: "Event risk is extremely high ahead of Powell's speech, and volatility positioning will remain defensive."

Conclusion

Bitcoin is facing a dual test from macro policies and technical aspects: the Jackson Hole annual meeting could become a catalyst for breaking the current range-bound pattern, and the battle between the support level of 110,000 and the resistance level of 120,000 will determine the short-term direction. Traders need to be cautious of two scenarios: if Powell signals a dovish stance, Bitcoin may quickly rebound to challenge 120,000; if he maintains a hawkish position, it could trigger a wave of long liquidations leading to a test of support at 110,000 or even 108,000. Ethereum's strong performance relative to Bitcoin may continue, becoming a new option to hedge against Bitcoin volatility.