The Web3 AI field has rapidly shifted from a fair launch model to a medium-scale strategy

In just one quarter, the Web3 AI field has rapidly shifted from a fair launch model to a strategy model with medium size and medium future fully diluted valuation (FDV), known as the attention capital market.

Some ecological projects perform well initially, but over time, the attractiveness of the product gradually diminishes. The speed of this decline is proportional to the project's scale, the team's startup time, and the funding for product research and development.

The core issue faced by teams in a fair launch is the general lack of funding support before the token issuance. Most teams cannot afford the costs of self-funding their development, so the fair launch model mainly relies on token trading fees as the primary source of revenue for project operations.

This model does not solve the cold start problem. Typically, one or two independent developers collaborate to launch a project, create a roadmap, release a demo version to ignite community enthusiasm, and then issue tokens. After the token price is inflated, the bubble bursts, and the momentum for development fades.

The current feasible approach is for developers to self-fund the launch of the product, gradually build a team, and ultimately release the minimum viable product (MVP).

The current market shows two obvious trends: the appeal of fair launch models continues to decline, coupled with a shortage of high-quality AI product supply, leading to a continuous shift in capital and market attention. Mid-sized teams that have focused on product development for 1-2 years, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) in the range of $40 million to $80 million, are benefiting as a result. These teams have optimized their products to a stage close to scalability.

Many teams spend months testing products, conducting user interviews, collecting feedback, and continuously improving.

This trend has been exacerbated by the rise of the attention capital market. The information finance ( InfoFi ) sector is undergoing transformation, turning noise into valuable signals through capital commitment. Investors are proving through their actions that they are not just in it for short-term gains, but truly believe in the viewpoints they support.

There is a consensus in the industry that in the future we will see clearer data metrics that can distinguish between those who are only in it for short-term gains and those who truly trust the project and the team and are willing to invest funds to support them as long-term investors.

We are witnessing the intense reactions generated by the first launch of two new projects.

Theoriq vs Almanak

The initial FDV of the Theoriq project is $75 million (discounted by 50% compared to the previous round of venture capital valuation). The token release rules are as follows: 25% will be unlocked during the token generation event (TGE), 37.5% will be unlocked after 1 year, and the remaining portion will be released linearly over the following year.

The FDV of Almanak is 90 million USD, fully unlocked. Users ranked in the top 25 can invest based on an FDV of 75 million USD.

The token terms of Theoriq are quite favorable (with a 50% discount compared to the previous round of venture capital pricing). Based on community feedback, the project team has adjusted the token allocation plan to 100% unlock at TGE.

The current FDV of the two projects is 75 million and either 75 million or 90 million USD respectively. Their likelihood of performing well is very high, as these are the first projects from two well-known platforms that need to attract more quality teams through good performance.

Both teams are working to create products with substantial value in the DeFi space, including scalable infrastructure and various applications, aimed at attracting more users and capital into the blockchain ecosystem.

Investment Recommendations and Reasons

Both projects are worth investing in. The Almanak product is better prepared and is expected to achieve product-market fit earlier than Theoriq.

Theoriq demonstrates extraordinary strategic ambition, with the team building vertical workflow for specific clients, continuously strengthening the functional system, and showcasing technical capabilities through the infrastructure layer. Its ultimate goal is to become the preferred service discovery platform for the meta-intelligent agent scheduling system, achieving an intelligent matching ecosystem that dynamically allocates the best agent clusters based on user needs.

Almanak focuses on the AI vault system, which features security, controllability, audit transparency, and verifiability: on one hand, it is designed for institutional capital needs; on the other hand, it combines smart contracts with professional program agents, along with a user-friendly interface, enabling creators to expand and optimize more vault strategies.

The key to the project's good performance in the short term depends on the execution of the market entry strategy at launch, the ability to manage market makers, and whether it can effectively digest the selling pressure in the early stages of listing.

Overall, based on the performance of the project launch, we may see these two platforms enter a new round of positive appreciation trend (value derived from direct airdrop gains and the increase in allocation for stakers).

I am very much looking forward to seeing more AI teams launch their new projects on these two platforms soon.