The American Election Storm Reignites: The Fierce Contest Between Harris and Trump

Recently, the competitive landscape of the U.S. presidential election has become increasingly intense. On September 10, the two main candidates, Harris and Trump, faced off for the first time on the debate stage. This highly anticipated debate may be the only one before the election. The market generally believes that Harris's performance exceeded expectations, while Trump was relatively bland.

After the debate, the betting market reacted quickly. Within just two hours, the contract price for Harris's election rose from $53 to $57, while Trump's fell from $52 to $47, further widening the gap between the two. This change reflects the market's optimism about Harris's chances of winning.

In the debate, Harris excelled on multiple issues. She demonstrated an understanding of female voters on the abortion issue, shared personal experiences on racial matters, and emphasized future development plans, conveying a hope for driving change. In contrast, Trump primarily focused on issues such as illegal immigration, tariff policies, and fossil fuel supply, but his arguments lacked innovation and may struggle to attract moderate voters.

However, the campaign trail has not been smooth sailing. On September 24, Harris's campaign office in Arizona was shot at, leaving four bullet holes in the glass doors and windows. Although the office was unoccupied at the time of the incident, resulting in no casualties, this event has sparked much speculation and discussion.

In terms of funding, Harris shows a clear advantage. The latest data shows that Harris's team had an average daily expenditure of 7.5 million dollars in August, while Trump's camp only spent 2.6 million dollars. In fundraising, Harris is also far ahead, having raised a total of 404 million dollars by the end of August, while Trump has raised 295 million dollars.

Harris's diverse background has earned her wide support. As a woman from a minority immigrant family, coupled with her prestigious education and extensive professional experience, she holds an advantage among several voter demographics. However, her political career is also marked by controversy, including some of her decisions and statements during her tenure as a prosecutor.

Currently, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump by 1.6% in the polls. Among the confirmed electoral votes, Harris has about 226 votes, while Trump has about 219 votes. To win, Harris still needs 44 electoral votes, while Trump needs 51.

The policy proposals of the two candidates differ significantly. Harris tends to subsidize residents through fiscal expansion, which may lead to an increase in borrowing in the short term, unfavorable for bond assets but may support the dollar. Her tax increase policy might put pressure on U.S. stocks. Trump's policies, on the other hand, are relatively favorable for U.S. stocks, cyclical commodities, and digital currencies, but may have an intervention effect on the dollar.

In the next two months, there are still variables in the election situation. The United States adopts the "Electoral College system," meaning that the candidate with the most popular votes may not necessarily be elected. Currently, the election situation in several swing states is more intense than in previous years, and the outcome of the election remains difficult to predict.