Analysis of the Evolution of Ethereum L2 and Public Chain Landscape

1. DeFi TVL and Trading Volume Trends

Arbitrum and Optimism's TVL rankings have entered the top ten, with DeFi daily trading volumes ranking third and fifth respectively. The TVL and trading volumes of these two L2 networks have surpassed most public chains, second only to a few highly active public chains like Ethereum and BSC. DeFi trading volume reflects the activity level of the chain to some extent.

2. Eco Project Development

DeFi, NFT, and GameFi projects on L2 are relatively complete, with mainstream DeFi protocols such as Aave and Uniswap already providing services on L2. Some native L2 projects are also beginning to show potential, such as TreasureDAO and GMX on Arbitrum.

Data shows that there are already dozens of projects on Arbitrum and Optimism with more than 10,000 active users for several months. Currently, the scale of L2 ecological projects has begun to take shape, and the development speed is expected to accelerate further. From the perspective of ecological projects, L2 has surpassed most public chains.

3. Active Addresses

Currently, the number of daily active addresses on BSC, Ethereum, and Solana is higher than that of Arbitrum and Optimism, while Avalanche is at the same level as the two major L2s. From the trend, the daily active users on Ethereum are steadily increasing, BSC is relatively stable, Solana and Avalanche are showing a declining trend, while the daily active users on Optimism and Arbitrum are both showing a significant upward trend.

With the development of technology, especially after the launch of EIP-4844, the daily active addresses of L2 are expected to further increase. In the next 2-5 years, there may be significant changes in the ranking of daily active addresses for L2.

4. Trading Volume

Currently, the daily transaction volume of Ethereum is about 1 million, while Arbitrum and Optimism each have about 350,000. Over the past year, the transaction volume of L2 has continued to rise, while the Ethereum mainnet has remained relatively stable. The long-term stable transaction volume of L2 surpassing that of Ethereum L1 may be realized soon.

It should be noted that the trading volume does not fully reflect the activity of the chain; it is also necessary to consider the actual number of users and interactions of active dApps in the ecosystem to make a judgment.

5. Transaction Fees

L2 fees have been significantly reduced, with the cost of sending Ether and exchanging tokens ranging from a few cents to a few dimes, which is more than 10 times lower than L1. Except for Solana, other public chains do not have a significant advantage in transaction fees compared to L2.

More importantly, L2 fees have the potential to decrease by several times. With the implementation of EIP-4844 and danksharding, L2 fees are expected to be significantly reduced further, even lower than most monolithic public chains. This will attract fee-sensitive users and developers into the Ethereum ecosystem.

6. TPS( Transactions Per Second )

According to third-party tests, in the Uniswap V2 token exchange scenario, Ethereum has a TPS of about 9, Polygon about 47, Avalanche about 31, BSC about 194, and Solana about 273. Most public chains have a TPS ranging from several tens to hundreds, which is an increase of several times to dozens of times compared to Ethereum L1.

In theory, L2 can achieve 1000-4000 TPS, and if the relevant technology is implemented, it is expected to exceed 100,000 TPS. Although the actual operation may not reach the theoretical value, it is possible to be comparable to high-performance single public chains. With the development of technology, the TPS of L2 will increase significantly, and combined with the security and network effects of Ethereum, L2 may potentially end the public chain competition in the future.

Evolutionary Prospects of the Pattern

With the maturity of the L2 ecosystem, the TVL, active users, and transaction volume of Arbitrum and Optimism are expected to gradually surpass that of most public chains. The future landscape may see Ethereum and its L2s become the primary networks, while a few large chain ecosystems and some niche chains focusing on specific areas also exist.

L2 will become an important competitor to other public chains. If L2 ultimately stands out, it will further enhance the network effects of the Ethereum ecosystem and solidify its leading position in the fields of smart contracts and Web3.

Overall, due to the advantages of L2 in terms of security, scalability, and ecological benefits, it may occupy a favorable position in competition with other public chains. However, the landscape of blockchain is still dynamically evolving, and disruptive technologies may emerge in the future, while the true explosion of Web3 may also bring new variables.

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