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On June 12, 2025, global financial markets experienced turmoil due to multiple adverse factors. In the early hours of that day, the US stock market and the Bitcoin market fell in sync, primarily due to the sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Recently, tensions in the Middle East have been markedly escalated by a series of US actions: the US Embassy in Iraq has begun to implement a personnel evacuation plan, the US State Department has authorized staff to leave a number of Middle Eastern countries, and the Department of Defense has also approved the withdrawal of US military families from military bases in the Middle East. During the same period, Israel's defense forces went on high alert, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps publicly announced that it had deployed more advanced missile systems. This saber-rattling regional posture has made investors extremely nervous. In an interview, Mr. Trump expressed pessimism about the prospects for negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, saying that he was "increasingly lacking in confidence," which further fueled fears that the negotiations could fail and lead to a full-blown expansion of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Although the previously released U.S. Consumer Price Index for May was lower than market expectations, conveying a positive signal of moderate inflation in the economy, the impact brought by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East is clearly much stronger, quickly overshadowing this good news. It is worth mentioning that the current market fluctuations are similar to the short-term pullback triggered by the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index remains around 61, indicating that investor sentiment has not completely collapsed.
From the perspective of the digital currency market, Bitcoin shows a significant short-term adjustment characteristic: market trading activity continues to decline, and some short-term investors choose to reduce their positions and exit, but the overall impact range is limited. Notably, the number of wallets holding more than 0.1 Bitcoin has reached a new high.