BTC will lead 64% in 2025 – Will altcoins be overshadowed?

* The dominance of Bitcoin remains at its highest this year, this is needed for the altcoin recovery to gain momentum.

• However, the altcoin sell-off early in 2025 has eased and reached a bottom at the support level of 2024.

Bitcoin dominance [BTC] (BTC.D) has increased significantly in 2025, overshadowing the prospects of the expected altcoin rally.

BTC.D has increased by 13% from January to April, causing the altcoin market (Total3, excluding BTC and ETH) to decrease from 1.13 trillion USD to 817 billion USD. This is a decline of 28% (300 billion USD) in the size of the altcoin market.

Upcoming altcoin recovery?

Source: BTC.D compared to Altcoin market capitalization (Total3)

An increase in BTC.D means that capital is flowing from altcoins to the "king of cryptocurrency". In fact, major price increases of altcoins often occur when BTC.D decreases ( capital flows from BTC to altcoins ).

Although BTC.D has surpassed 64% and could expand to 66% or 70%, similar to the cycle in 2021, the altcoin sell-off in 2025 has bottomed out. The altcoin market has stabilized near a market capitalization of 750 billion USD.

There is a similar bottom pattern in the altcoin market when excluding the top 10 assets.

Source: TradingView (Market capitalization of Altcoin compared to USDT dominance)

The chart shows that the altcoin market ( excluding the top 10 assets ) has recovered to 200 billion USD, an important support zone in 2024 ( green ).

When looking closely at the period of August-September 2024 (white oval), the altcoin market has consolidated between the 50WMA and 200WMA (weekly moving averages).

The price increase in November occurred after breaking out of this range.

If history repeats itself, breaking above the 50WMA could push this sector higher towards the resistance level around 500 billion USD.

At the time of writing, this segment has increased by 33%, indicating a bullish trend in some altcoins.

In fact, the dominance of USDT (USDT.D) is decreasing from nearly 6%, which could provide additional momentum as traders use Stablecoin to invest in potential altcoins.

However, according to the altcoin season index (ASI) on CoinMarketCap, the overall market is still in the BTC season.

The ASI index is 18, indicating that BTC has outperformed most altcoins in the past 90 trading days.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Only Fartcoin [FARTCOIN], PancakeSwap [CAKE], and Monero [XMR] are the leading coins, increasing by 8%, 2.8%, and 19% compared to BTC over the past three months, while BTC decreased by 10%.

In conclusion, the altcoin sell-off has eased and reached a bottom, indicating a broader recovery potential. However, a confirmed recovery will only occur when BTC dominance decreases.

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