This week's 5 major focus points in the Bitcoin (BTC) market: "local top" and $88,000 pullback?

Source: Cointelegraph Original: "This Week's 5 Key Focus Points in the Bitcoin (BTC) Market: 'Local Top' and $88,000 Retracement?"

Bitcoin (BTC) is迎来 an important macro data week in the US, and participants in the crypto market warn of potential volatility next week.

After an optimistic weekly closing performance, Bitcoin is retesting the $92,000 level, but traders still expect a deeper correction in the BTC price.

As the Federal Reserve faces multiple pressures, the United States welcomes a major macroeconomic data release week.

Analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve is currently constrained by multiple factors, with expectations that interest rates will be lowered and liquidity will significantly increase, leading BTC/USD to potentially reach $180,000 within 18 months.

Short-term Bitcoin holders have returned to profitability, making the current price level particularly important for speculative investors.

Research conclusions show that although market sentiment is in a neutral zone, the collective FOMO mentality may limit the potential for further price increases.

As the new week begins, Bitcoin hovers near multi-month highs after testing the $92,000 support level following the weekly close.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the weekly close shows a bullish performance, closing slightly above the key annual opening price of $93,500.

#BTCCan Bitcoin do it?Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above $93500 to start the process of regaining the previous Range?$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/5ga0gcSqX4

Famous trader CrypNuevo predicts an "interesting week" ahead, as he is optimistic about the potential for BTC/USD to reach new highs.

"It's very simple - I believe the current momentum has not yet exhausted, and there may be a third wave of increase to $97,000, where some liquidity exists," he stated in a post on platform X.

"In the end, we should see a retest of the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which could become a potential support level."

CrypNuevo refers to the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour time frame, currently at $91,850.

In terms of retesting possible support levels, another trader Roman believes there will be a deeper pullback.

"Waiting to see what happens at the $88,000 level," he stated to his followers on the X platform.

"I don't think the possibility of breaking through the resistance level of $94,000 in the short term is high."

Roman reiterated that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the seriously overbought area, indicating that a cooling period in prices may occur.

At the same time, trader and commentator Skew is focusing on the range of $90,000 to $92,000, stating that the current price movement reflects the market's "hesitation."

This week, the U.S. macroeconomic data and inflation progress will reach a critical moment, with a series of important data being released intensively.

The GDP for the first quarter, non-farm employment data, and tech stock earnings reports will all be released, but the most noteworthy is the "preferred" inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

The PCE and GDP data will be released on April 30, and both indicators will be announced before the monthly close, which may trigger fluctuations in cryptocurrencies and risk assets.

The current situation has become very tense - US trade tariffs have caused severe fluctuations in the cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity markets, and it seems that this situation is unlikely to end in the short term.

The trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter points out in its ongoing analysis on platform X: "This year is one of the most volatile years in history: the S&P 500 has experienced 2% bidirectional fluctuations on 23% of trading days, which means at least once a week on average this year."

"This is the highest reading since 2022, when the annual ratio reached 29%. In comparison, the long-term average is twice a month."

At the same time, inflation expectations have become a key topic. Although the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, the market anticipates rate cuts will begin in June.

The latest data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that there are divergent views in the market regarding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June.

In contrast, the market almost universally expects that the FOMC meeting in May will maintain the current federal funds rate.

"Strong evidence of a robust labor market and concerns that tariffs may affect inflation prospects have led the Federal Reserve to remain cautious on interest rates," wrote trading firm Mosaic Asset in its regular newsletter "The Market Mosaic" published on April 27.

Mosaic cites FedWatch data stating, "The market-implied probability is beginning to shift towards supporting more rate cuts before the end of the year."

The current macro data has attracted the attention of participants in the crypto market, as they weigh the long-term effects of the Federal Reserve's current policies.

Hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero made a bold prediction about the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in his latest analysis on the X platform.

"Bitcoin will reach $180,000 before the summer of 2026," he concluded.

Tapiero pointed out that the latest survey by the Federal Reserve shows that manufacturing expectations are deteriorating at a record pace, stating that these results "are hard to ignore."

In another post about the outlook for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), he continued to write: "Forward market inflation indicators are falling into dangerous territory."

In both cases, Tapiero concludes that Bitcoin and risk assets will benefit from increased market liquidity against the backdrop of record M2 money supply - a theory that has already gained widespread popularity.

He added when discussing the current interest rates: "Considering the fiscal tightening, the real interest rates are too restrictive, and the liquidity tap is about to be turned on."

Due to the influence of the average cost basis of short-term holders (STH) on market trends, short-term holders of Bitcoin have once again become the focus at the current price level.

As Cointelegraph often reports, the cost basis (also known as the realized price) reflects the average price at which speculative investors enter the market.

This level covers buyers from the past 6 months and is subdivided into several subcategories, which is particularly important in a Bitcoin bull market.

CryptoMe, a contributor for the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, wrote in their "Quicktake" blog post: "From the current situation, the price has reached the STH realized price."

CryptoQuant data shows that the STH aggregate cost basis is currently around $92,000, making this level a key support that needs to be maintained in the future.

CryptoMe explains: "A key on-chain condition for a bull market is that the price stays above the STH realized price. If the price falls below the realized price, we can't truly talk about a bull market."

"If this bull market is to continue, these conditions must be met."

In March, the cost basis of STH lost support, while the recent rebound in BTC prices had an almost immediate impact on its latest buyers.

Earlier this month, the coins held by STH moved on-chain, triggering predictions of increased market volatility.

After the cryptocurrency market's greed index hit a nearly three-month high last week, the sentiment of greed has once again drawn attention as a price influencing factor this week.

The latest Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows that on April 25, the index soared to 72/100, indicating that the sentiment in the crypto market is nearing "extreme greed."

Although it has now returned to a "neutral" zone, research company Santiment still warns of a potential local price top.

Santiment told followers on platform X: "Data shows that as BTC rebounds above $95,000 for the first time since February, market sentiment has seen a surge of optimism."

"In terms of the level of greed measured on social media, this is the highest peak of bullish (relative to bearish) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024."

The attached image shows the "excitement and FOMO sentiment" reaching a peak as described by Santiment due to the rebound in BTC prices.

The company added: "The levels of greed and fear among the masses are likely to influence whether a local top is formed (due to excessive greed among the masses) or whether cryptocurrencies can continue to decouple from the S&P 500 index (as the masses attempt to take profits too early)."

Related articles: Bitcoin (BTC) retraced after breaking through $95,000, institutional activity may trigger market volatility.

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