What is the bottom of Ethereum? Is an ETH bull run about to come?

After 16 days of selling pressure caused by macroeconomic uncertainty and a sharp decline in on-chain activity, the price of ETH has risen above $1,700. Although there has been a rebound, Ethereum's performance so far this year is still 23% lower than the overall altcoin market.

Some traders claim that by providing a "truly" decentralized and permissionless financial system, ETH will usher in a bull market, but is that really the case?

Unlike competitors such as Solana, TRON, and BNB, Ethereum is one of the few mainstream cryptocurrencies that failed to set a new all-time high in 2025.

Some critics believe that abandoning proof-of-work mining will eliminate Ethereum's former competitive advantage over its rivals.

Ethereum Fees Decrease Hint at Weak Ethereum Prices

Ultimately, even if only for a short period, Ethereum's performance may surpass its competitors, despite the lack of strong fundamentals to support sustained price growth, but those influencers calling for a "bottom" will celebrate their predictions. However, given that Ethereum fees have dropped by 95% since January, the likelihood of ETH skyrocketing immediately seems low.

Daily fees on the Ethereum network. Source: DefiLlama

The low demand for data processing on the Ethereum network has led to inflation of ETH, as the built-in burning mechanism is insufficient to balance the issuance of new coins to pay staking rewards.

Despite being significantly ahead in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL), traders are generally uninterested in this metric as it does not translate into higher demand for the Ethereum network or an increase in the scarcity of ETH.

Therefore, even though the fundamentals of Ethereum have improved, the optimism of ETH holders is declining, while competitors (especially Solana and XRP investors) are hopeful about the approval of their spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Currently, spot ETFs in the U.S. are only available for Bitcoin and ETH, so additional issuances may reduce institutional demand for alts.

What is even more concerning is that from April 21 to April 23, a net outflow of 10 million USD was observed in the spot Ether ETFs listed in the United States, while similar BTC instruments saw record inflows.

History shows that the rise in ETH prices rarely lasts long.

Historical evidence shows that compared to its competitors, ETH's performance is not sustainable, which reduces the likelihood of ETH continuing to rise.

Ethereum's market share among alts. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

For example, when the price of ETH fell below $1,100, its market share in the altcoin capital reached a low point of about 26.5% in June 2022. After a rapid rise to $2,000 in August 2022, the momentum gradually weakened, and less than three months later, the price of ETH fell below $1,200. This sudden adjustment may have frustrated many investors, as they had to wait eight months for ETH to recover to $2,000 in April 2023.

In April 2021, a similar situation occurred when the market share of Ethereum's altcoins fell to a bottom of 26.8%. Subsequently, the ETH price climbed from $2,100 to $4,200 in May 2021, but then dropped below $2,000 in the following month. Similarly, traders who bought near the cycle peak had to wait six months to recover their investments. This history has taught Ethereum traders to profit quickly, thereby reducing the chances of setting new historical highs.

It is difficult to determine what triggered the previous Ethereum bull market, especially when the narrative shifted from utility tokens to the NFT market, artificial intelligence, Meme coins, and most recently RWA tokenization. While some influential figures believe that ETH momentum is strong, others warn that ETH may drop another 15% compared to Bitcoin's performance.

Finally, historical evidence does not support a continuous increase in ETH prices, even if it has hit bottom relative to the broader altcoin market cap.