The "encryption anomaly": BTC returns to 94,000, but first-level investors cannot smile.

The spring of one wave of people must be the cold winter of another wave of people. (Summary: El Salvador adopts bitcoin 3 years: ninety percent BTC service providers close, the road to financial inclusion is slow and far away) (Background supplement: Bitcoin ETF net inflow for four consecutive days, institutional layout "smart money" or hidden "bull trap"? On April 23, the news reignited sentiment as Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on China. Investor confidence in risky assets quickly recovered, with BTC quietly rising 7% to return to $94,000. Everything, it seems to be back all night. BTC is one step closer to breaking through the all-time high of $100,000 at the beginning of the year, Twitter is full of expectations for a new bull market, traders in the secondary market are busy chasing the rise and fall, and the market seems to be back to the frenzy of spring in 2021. However, this return of emotions does not belong to everyone. It is they who are lively, and Tier 1 investors may be silent in the face of signs of bull return. The good news that BTC returned to $94,000 cheered investors in the secondary market, but for investors in the primary market, the carnival seemed like a distant dream. Most of their tokens are locked up and cannot be traded freely, and the market performance over the past year has caused them to lose a lot. A chart from STIX (@stix_co) reveals this harsh reality. @stix_co is a platform focused on cryptocurrency OTC (over-the-counter) trading, providing liquidity support for hedged tokens. The chart above compares the valuation changes of multiple tokens in May 2024 and April 2025: May 2024 is the valuation of these tokens when they are traded over-the-counter (i.e., the price at which Tier 1 investors can sell when they are locked), and April 2025 is the actual valuation of these tokens in the open market (i.e. the current market price). The results show that, on average, the valuation of these tokens has fallen by 50% in a year. Let's look at a few specific examples. BLAST's over-the-counter valuation last year was $250 million, and now the market valuation is only $30 million, down 88%; EIGEN fell 75% from $600 million to $150 million; The SCR was even worse, falling from $170 million to $25.5 million, a drop of 85%. Almost all tokens fell sharply, with the exception of the JTO, which rose 75% from $100 million to $175 million. But this is only a special case, and it cannot hide the overall bleak situation. To put it simply, if the tokens in the hands of these first-level investors were not sold through OTC trading last year, the average value of the coins held was directly cut in half, and some even only one or two percent remained. To insert background, OTC trading means that before the token is unlocked, Tier 1 investors can sell it in advance through a private transaction, usually at a discount. Taran mentioned in the post above that when these tokens were traded over-the-counter last year, the price was about 80% off the valuation. That is, if they had sold last year, they might have lost 10%-20%, or maybe not. But some investors chose to hold it for a year and wait to unlock it, but the value of the token fell by an average of 50%, and some even fell by seven or eight percent, and the wealth shrank significantly. You might say that their investment costs are low, and even if they fall so much, they still have to earn. But the problem is that there is also something called opportunity cost in economics. As an investor, what is more uncomfortable than earning less (and perhaps losing) is the loss of theoretical opportunity costs. At its best, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 45% over the past 12 months. If Tier 1 investors had sold their tokens for BTC last year, their money might have gone up 1.45 times by now. But now, their tokens are only worth 0.5 times, and may even have to be sold at another five discounts after unlocking them in the future, and may only be worth 0.25 times in the end. In other words, their actual losses were as high as 82.8% compared to BTC's gains; Even in dollar terms, it lost 75%. It's like watching someone else make a lot of money while your own assets shrink smaller and smaller. "Niu Hui", for them, may have died of lock-up. Locked up for a year, losing half of the money, the most angry thing about this matter is: research, comparison, identification and investment projects, after putting in the effort, it is better to take BTC directly. In the classic investment book "Walking on Wall Street", there is a famous "orangutan throwing dart theory". Author Burton Malkill suggests that if an orangutan throws a dart blindfolded and chooses a portfolio of stocks, the long-term return may be no worse than that of a professional investor's careful selection. This theory, originally used to satirize the ineffectiveness of over-analysis in the stock market, is now particularly ironic in the cryptocurrency market. Tier 1 investors spend a lot of time and energy, researching white papers, analyzing project prospects, and even locking up positions for a year to earn high returns, but the result may be: it is better to throw a dart at Bitcoin. BTC has risen 45% over the past year, while their hedged tokens have fallen by an average of 50% or more. The valuation and investment logic of the entire altcoin may need to be reshaped. Spring does not come back The next wave of crypto altcoins to play, is it still locked up like this? VCs entered the market at low prices, and the lock-up mechanism was originally intended to protect the early stage of the project and prevent early investors from selling off a large number of them and causing the price to crash. But from the data of the past year, this mechanism has also put Tier 1 investors on a huge risk. The original chart above also mentioned that more than $40 billion of locked-up tokens will be unlocked in the future, which means that the market may face more selling pressure. If the new token continues to be locked up at a high valuation, investors may once again fall into a vicious cycle of "locking up for a year and losing half the money". Obviously, the game of lock-up is no longer suitable for the current market environment. Will primary investment in the crypto market still be hot? Can the spring of primary investment come back? As things stand, the answer may not be optimistic. Over the past few years, altcoins' high valuations have tended to be based on market frenzy and liquidity premiums, but as the market matures, investors are starting to pay more attention to the real value and liquidity of projects. The high risk of hedging tokens is prohibitive for Tier 1 investors, and more and more people may choose more transparent and liquid projects. Some emerging trends are already emerging: shorter lock-up cycles, lower valuation multiples, and even reducing the bubble of primary investment directly through direct memes; Of course, it is also possible that it is still a new bottle of old wine, under the fairer appearance of Meme coins, the first-level logic still exists, and the organization makes plates, so that you can't see the existence of a level. For the crypto market as a whole, more transparent mechanisms have also become particularly important. The hedging mechanism also needs to find a better balance to protect the early stage of the project without allowing investors to take on excessive risks. But the question arises, the first level does not lose, the second level does not lose, the leek does not lose, then who will lose? Crypto tokens do not produce value, but transfer value; If someone earns, someone must lose. The spring of one wave of people must be the cold winter of another wave of people. Related reports Bitcoin stands firm at $93,000" FDV market value overtakes Amazon, Google, U.S. stocks continue to soar by nearly 4% Multiple technical indicators rarely resonate, BTC is starting...