Economic U-turn? BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns: we may have already fallen into a recession, and policies should "return to growth".

The global market is plunging into a state of high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's latest public comments provide key insights. In a forum, he not only stated that "we are likely already in a recession," but also pointed out that the current economic policy direction in the United States "is inflationary in the short term and may be undermining economic stability."

Fink calls on the Biden administration to return to growth-oriented policies "committed before the election," including tax cuts, deregulation, and speeding up construction, in order to help the United States emerge from economic gloom.

Fink stated bluntly: The economy is weakening, and the government should change its policy direction.

Fink's first point is that the economy is significantly weaker. "I can say with certainty that the economy is weakening" and pointed out that if the current policy direction continues, "the short term will lead to more inflation and damage the economy."

He criticized the government for focusing excessively on short-term issues (such as retaliatory tariffs and geopolitical concerns), neglecting significant opportunities for promoting long-term economic growth. "We have forgotten the power of AI and the potential for infrastructure rebuilding; these are the engines of the economy's future."

Growth solutions: tax cuts, deregulation, accelerating construction

Fink pointed out a clear "growth roadmap": returning to the economic stimulus strategy advocated during the Trump era. He suggested that the government should:

Restart tax reduction policies to stimulate corporate investment;

Promote the relaxation of regulations and simplify the construction permit process to allow funds to flow into infrastructure more quickly.

Encourage private equity to enter the US market and accelerate growth momentum.

He emphasized that only by making "private capital willing to invest in the United States" can the current trend of economic decline be reversed.

"We may already be in a recession": Consistent pessimism from the business community

When asked whether "we are already in a recession," Fink did not hesitate to say, "Most of the CEOs I talk to believe that we are currently in a recession."

He further shared that after discussions with senior executives from several airlines, he clearly felt that the demand was rapidly cooling. One airline CEO even described, "The aviation industry is like a canary in a coal mine, and this canary is already sick."

This sentence means that if even the most sensitive industry to economic observations — the aviation industry — is experiencing a rapid downturn, then the overall economy may indeed have structural problems.

Market Perspective: A recession may not be a bad thing, it could be a buying opportunity.

Despite the concerning economic data, Fink offers a different perspective. He pointed out, "If the market goes down, we are likely to look back and find that this is actually a great entry point."

This view echoes historical data: since 1950, starting from the low points of significant market declines, the average increase in the following 12 months can reach 29.2%, even during periods of recession or correction. This indicates that the market "usually leads economic rebounds."

Investment strategy adjustment: Finding opportunities in defense, is it profitable to buy on dips?

As the economic outlook worsens, several investors have begun asset restructuring. For example, some choose to buy back financial stocks like Citigroup, believing that the current stock price is attractive; others have pulled funds from travel and consumer stocks, shifting into strong fundamentals leaders like Amazon.

Although almost all fundamental data is negative, market participants also observe: "This may be a signal of excessive pessimism."

Key observations: The recovery of inflation and corporate earnings reports will become key variables.

In the coming weeks, two major factors will influence the market trend:

The corporate earnings season is here: if companies' revenues and profits are comprehensively revised down, it may exacerbate market panic.

If inflation heats up again: it may force the Federal Reserve to tighten again, further impacting the market.

Fink warns that if policies are not adjusted in a timely manner, the United States may miss a great opportunity to revitalize the economy.

Fink's dual signal: a pessimistic view of the economy, an optimistic view of the market

Larry Fink's remarks convey both warnings and hope: the economy is indeed slowing down, and the business community is generally pessimistic. However, if the government can pivot in time and activate growth engines, the market may respond ahead of schedule and even turn into a golden investment opportunity.

His final suggestion was clear: "Policies should return to growth and rebuild confidence." Otherwise, the current economic weakness will not just be a short-term shock, but may evolve into a long-term stagnation.

Is the economy in a sharp turn? BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns: we may have already fallen into a recession, and policies should "return to growth". First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.