J.P. Morgan warns of "Trump tariff risks": the probability of a global economic recession rises to 60%, and inflation in the United States could spiral out of control.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that Trump's latest tariffs have raised the risk of a global recession from 40% to 60%, and the impact of long-term implementation of these tariffs may be unbearable for an already fragile economic environment. (Synopsis: U.S. stocks crashed on record, and the Fei Half Index plunged 10%!) Trump: Tariffs are not to be talked about unless they provide something great for the United States) (Background supplement: Bridgewater Fund Dalio: 6 major effects and 4 variables of Trump's tariffs affecting the world economy) US President Trump officially announced his latest tariff policy yesterday (3) in the White House Rose Garden, announcing the establishment of a 10% benchmark tariff on all imported goods and the implementation of higher reciprocal tariffs for specific countries, and the two are scheduled to take effect in the early morning of April 5 and April 9, respectively. Trump's move, which is at the heart of his "America First" policy in his second term, has rocked global financial markets in the past two days: stock markets have plunged and gold prices have soared, signaling heightened investor concerns about the economic outlook. Against this background, two senior JPMorgan analysts separately warned that the comprehensive tariff plan could push the United States and the global economy to the brink of recession. JPMorgan analysts seriously warn of recession risk First of all, Bruce Kasman, chief global economist of JPMorgan Chase, pointed out in a report released today (4) that if the series of tariffs introduced by Trump is implemented for a long time, it may drag the US and global economies into recession in 2025. He said bluntly: The risk of a global recession has risen from 40% to 60%. These tariffs amount to the largest tax hike on U.S. homes and businesses since 1968. Kasman further noted that the negative impact of tariffs will be amplified by retaliatory actions by trading partners, declining business confidence, and supply chain disruptions. This, he estimates, could push U.S. inflation up by 1 to 2 percentage points and cut gross domestic product (GDP) by about 0.8 percent over the next 12 months. He stressed: This is not only a blow to foreign countries, but also will directly erode the purchasing power of American families, bringing about unpredictable chain reactions. At the same time, Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, also commented today that Trump's latest tariff move is a high-risk bet, although the tariff may bring about $400 billion a year to the United States, but the price will be to push up inflation and weaken consumer spending, which will directly affect the wallets of American households and trigger a recession: We may see a full-blown trade war that will not only hurt the US economy, but also drag down global growth. Is there room for Trump tariffs to be reversed? However, it is worth noting that after Trump introduced the latest tariffs yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Benson said that the United States would negotiate with its trading partners, seemingly suggesting that the tariffs still have a turnaround (including tax rates and effective time). However, a number of foreign media reports today pointed out that the White House regarded the tariffs as a response to the national emergency, not as a bargaining chip. However, Trump has also said in an interview that he is open to negotiations, but only if his trading partners offer something remarkable... How the US tariffs will eventually land and what the future prospects of the global economy will be are worthy of our continued attention. Related stories Gold hits another all-time high! Market "capital hedge" Trump's global tariff war, oil and U.S. debt volatility intensifies Moody's analysis: Trump tariffs will kill "5.5 million jobs"; Coupled with the destruction of the US economy by AI Trump is "very hot" to Putin threatened to increase Russian oil tariffs, and then threatened Iran to bomb if it does not reach a nuclear deal (JPMorgan Chase warns of "Trump tariff risk": the probability of global recession increases to 60%, US inflation will get out of control" This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".