In the Web3 era, âmeme tokensâ have become a concentrated exhibition of community sentiment and speculative psychology. In January 2025, just before taking office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced the launch of his personal meme coin, $TRUMP. This move led to a massive surge in the tokenâs price, causing a stir across global social, financial, and political arenas. Within just 48 hours, a small number of early blockchain adopters locked in huge profits, while more following retail investors found themselves stuck buying at the peak, experiencing the intense highs and devastating lows brought about by celebrity influence and rapid speculation.
Compared to any previous meme coin mania, the âU.S. President launching a tokenâ has unprecedented controversy and impact across political, legal, ethical, and socio-cultural dimensions. In this commotion, we witnessed the victory of speculative capital, but also saw the awkward reality where traditional financial systems and governmental ethics were placed under intense scrutiny.
Since the birth of internet culture, many memes and subcultural symbols have emerged. These symbols gain explosive social influence due to their humor, viral nature, or ease of dissemination. Some âmemesâ are continually shared and even modified on forums and social media, gradually evolving into popular symbols within communities.
With the development of blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi), the combination of âMeme + Tokenâ successfully ties culture to finance, giving rise to a series of phenomenally popular projects such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe. These projects do not necessarily have traditional technological support or practical applications; instead, they rely on the spontaneous enthusiasm of online communities and celebrity endorsements to create extreme market reactions in a short period.
It is important to note that blockchain is a decentralized database or ledger, where every transaction is jointly verified and recorded by multiple nodes in the network. Meme tokens do not provide functions such as payments or settlements on this ledger. Instead, they act more as a âticketâ or âsymbol,â with their value entirely determined by community consensus.
Web3 has given ordinary people more opportunities to control financial assets and data, making it easier for small teams or individuals to create breakout projects. Anyone can publish their own token based on blockchain smart contracts. As long as they find enough supporters or speculators, they may experience a âbig bangâ quickly. However, issues such as the lack of regulation, frequent bubbles, and varying project quality cannot be ignored.
The sudden emergence of Trump Coin ($TRUMP) can be seen as a fierce collision between the Web3 ecosystem and traditional political power. This time, it was not a small startup team, but a globally influential political figure stepping into the fray. The marketâs attention exceeded typical meme coins, sparking more legal and ethical discussions in the global public discourse.
The launch was set for the evening of January 17, 2025 (Eastern Time), just before Donald Trump was to assume office as President of the United States officially. This timing was widely interpreted as a âspecial windowâ to raise funds or accumulate wealth before the U.S. Constitutionâs salary regulations took effect on him. The political identity and personal fame associated with the project allowed it to rapidly âgo viralâ without much promotional effort. In a short period, trading volume and media attention surged. According to media reports, from traditional financial circles to street-level discussions, people everywhere were talking about the astonishing event of a âpresident issuing a token.â
This was because cryptocurrency issuance does not require complex administrative approval. As long as a smart contract is deployed on the blockchain, tokens can be quickly pushed to market. Therefore, figures like Trump can technically create a token and sell it to the public quickly, should they choose to do so.
$TRUMP was jointly launched by Trump family-affiliated companies (such as Fight Fight Fight LLC, CIC Digital LLC, etc.), with the team controlling 80% of the tokenâs supply. The remaining 20% is available for public trading through on-chain liquidity pools or centralized exchanges.
This token distribution model presents significant opportunities for manipulation: if the team were to sell off large amounts or unlock tokens early in subsequent phases, the token price could experience extreme volatility in a short period. Ordinary retail investors would find themselves at a disadvantage, as their holdings are negligible compared to those of major token holders.
The âpresident issuing a tokenâ event is unprecedented in the history of cryptocurrencies, instantly trending across both traditional and social media platforms. Global media outlets followed suit in reporting on the event, and even Wall Street financial institutions could not ignore the explosive news. Some institutions even began researching whether they should consider $TRUMP as a speculative asset. At the same time, many ordinary people also attempted to participate, hoping to profit from short-term trading opportunities.
Before diving into the subsequent chapters of this research, letâs first review the specific issuance details, on-chain data, and community performance of the $TRUMP token. The token was deployed on the Solana blockchain on January 18, 2025, with the contract address 6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN, and launched at an initial price of $0.1824. Within just 36 hours, the price surged to a historic high of $75. As of February 10, following several days of extreme volatility, the price had fallen back to around $16.
Notably, within just a few hours of its launch, the tokenâs market capitalization surged to $3.2 billion, only to pull back by 50% within a few days. This dramatic rise and fall starkly exemplify the typical characteristics of âmeme tokens,â which are driven by public sentiment and cultural connections rather than traditional economic fundamentals.
In the âToken Ecosystem Analysisâ section, the $TRUMP smart contract has passed a security audit and was rated with a âlow-riskâ security level, with the code being fully open-source. While no major vulnerabilities were found at the contract level, from an economic perspective, the issuance and distribution mechanism shows a high degree of centralization: 80% of the tokens are held by team members, and only 20% are available for public circulation, with a staged unlocking process.
Tip: This distribution model means that if the team or large holders decide to sell off a large portion of their tokens at specific points, ordinary retail investors or smaller funds will struggle to compete, leading to severe liquidity impacts in the market. This could trigger flash crashes or extreme price rebounds. This situation is similar to the concept of âmajor shareholders manipulating market expectationsâ in traditional economics.
From January 18 to 19, during the âinitial surgeâ period, the tokenâs price increased by over 40,000%. This was followed by a roughly 50% correction between January 20 and 22. From January 23 onward, the price began a steady decline. As of the time of this study, from February 4 to February 10, a âmajor reshufflingâ occurred, with the token price fluctuating between the $15 and $20 range.
According to liquidity distribution on decentralized exchanges, Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca collectively locked in about $420 million in value, with a daily trading volume of approximately $270 million. While the tokenâs liquidity is not overly dependent on a single DEX (Jupiter accounts for 45%, Raydium 30%, and Orca 25%), in terms of activity, $TRUMP has already lost the high turnover rate seen during its early explosive phase.
Analysis of the user demographics shows that 12 large-holder addresses (representing 80.2% of the total supply) control almost all of the tokens. Additionally, 156 medium-sized addresses (holding between 0.1% and 1%) collectively own 14.5% of the tokens. While there are 142,583 retail addresses, they account for only 5.3% of the circulating supply. This structure reveals a severe âwealth concentrationâ phenomenon, where most retail investors are in a disadvantaged position in the market, with minimal influence on price movements.
Data shows that approximately 23% of transactions are high-frequency trades, with these accounts quickly taking advantage of market fluctuations for arbitrage or stop-loss purposes. A further 72% of users are engaged in short-term speculation, while only 5% claim to be long-term holders. This indicates that most participants view $TRUMP as a speculative gamble rather than a sustainable investment asset.
Statistics show that the token was mentioned approximately 52,731 times per day on Twitter, TikTok videos related to it received up to 270 million views, and the Discord community had 89,651 active users. Sentiment analysis reveals that 45% of the sentiment is positive, 25% negative, and 30% neutral. The difference between positive and negative sentiment is just 20%.
In finance, sentiment indicators are often seen as either leading or lagging signals for price movements:
A multi-faceted analysis from the technical, economic, and community ecological perspectives shows that despite $TRUMPâs claim of high contract security, its issuance model and holding structure still amplify market sentiment, making the tokenâs price more vulnerable to the influence of a few large holders and short-term speculators. The ongoing social media buzz exacerbates this volatility, creating a cycle of âpublic opinion â capital flow â token price fluctuations.â
Reminder for Retail Investors:
In addition to tracking large on-chain transfers and unlocking progress, retail investors should closely monitor social media and sentiment indicators to avoid getting stuck at high prices or missing out on short-term price surges.
According to official information, $TRUMP was deployed on the Solana blockchain. Although Trump had previously shown more interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum, he ultimately chose Solana, which seemed somewhat unexpected. There are rumors that the head of the Presidentâs Advisory Committee (âCrypto Tsarâ) has close ties with the Solana team, providing technical support and liquidity assistance for the project.
Solana is known for its high throughput and relatively low transaction fees, making it suitable for large-scale, concurrent trading scenarios. This provided favorable conditions for $TRUMP to attract a large volume of buy and sell orders quickly.
$TRUMP is traded through Moonshot, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), and centralized platforms such as Gate.io. In the early stages, as a rush of users flocked to the token and each transaction had to be confirmed on the blockchain, many experienced transaction congestion, with some fees even much higher than expected.
Some reports indicate that the large volume of on-chain transactions in the early stages generated substantial transaction fee revenue for the Trump team. There are suspicions that this may have been part of a pre-designed âfee extractionâ strategy, as the team might share revenue with platforms or mining pools, although the specifics have not been publicly disclosed.
Melania Trump followed suit by launching $MELANIA, further linking the Trump familyâs image to the cryptocurrency space. Additionally, the Trump family had previously launched multiple themed NFTs (non-fungible tokens). The industry speculates that in the future, more family members or âtrusted associatesâ may release new tokens, potentially even forming a broader âTrump Metaverseâ ecosystem.
Tip: NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) differ from ordinary cryptocurrencies in that they represent unique digital assets, such as artwork or collectible cards, which cannot be exchanged one-to-one like BTC or ETH. However, like cryptocurrencies, NFTs are also based on blockchain smart contracts and their pricing depends on market interest and scarcity.
Within hours of $TRUMPâs issuance, the price rapidly surged from under $1 to $14â$23, attracting significant attention. Professional traders familiar with blockchain trends were able to monitor the smart contract address and capture the project early, purchasing large amounts of cheap tokens before it officially launched. Some achieved several, even tens of times, profits within just half a day.
The community speculated, âWas Trumpâs account hacked? This is absurd.â However, the official team refrained from any clarification, leading many to believe that the project came from Trumpâs team, further fueling speculative enthusiasm.
Mainstream exchanges like Gate.io announced the listing of $TRUMP for spot trading, allowing many U.S. retail investors and traditional stock market traders easier access to the token. Driven by buying pressure, the price soared to the $60â$75 range, and the fully diluted market cap briefly surpassed $75 billion.
In just two days, over 400 addresses on the blockchain were reported to have made profits exceeding $1 million. Meanwhile, many new users entered at the peak price, only to face the subsequent crash.
It is important to note that when a token lists on a large centralized exchange (CEX), it often signifies a significant increase in market depth and transaction volume. However, this also marks the âexit opportunityâ for early players, as they can sell the cheap tokens they acquired on-chain to newcomers on the exchange.
At this time, Melania Trump also launched $MELANIA, attracting some funds away from $TRUMP. Additionally, the Trump team might have sold off at the peak, causing $TRUMPâs price to plummet by 50% to $35â$40 in just a few hours. Market sentiment quickly shifted from euphoria to panic. Retail investors who had entered early were frustrated, feeling they had been âtaken in by the President,â and discontent and skepticism surged within the community.
During this phase, the price of $TRUMP gradually stabilized, fluctuating between $26 and $16. On-chain data showed that from January 25 to February 12, the daily volatility of the token dropped sharply from over 100% to around 30%, while daily trading volume remained stable at $150 million to $200 million. During this period, high-frequency trading activity noticeably decreased, with only about 15% of accounts engaging in frequent trades, while the vast majority of retail accounts saw their positions stagnate. Approximately 78% of FOMO investors failed to exit in time, showing they were now stuck in a losing position.
Additionally, social media sentiment experienced a significant pullback: during the early hype, the gap between positive and negative sentiment was just 20%, while during this phase, positive sentiment remained at around 45%, and negative sentiment rose to about 40%. This indicates that the market transitioned from speculative fervor to more rational scrutiny. Overall, while $TRUMP did not deviate entirely from the typical âMeme coin pump followed by sharp declinesâ path, the data suggests that the market was entering a period of adjustment, with a more balanced flow of funds and investor behavior, leading to a gradual return to more rational price fluctuations.
According to on-chain statistics, 80% of $TRUMP tokens are held by the project team or associated addresses. In comparison, a significant portion of the remaining 20% is concentrated in the hands of a few large holders. As a result, the overall market control is extremely high. The majority of retail investors hold very small amounts, and whenever the major holders take action, the price tends to fluctuate dramatically.
Many latecomer retail investors bought in at significantly higher prices than the initial issuance price and are now âstuck at the peak.â Some have held their tokens hoping to double their investment, while others have reluctantly cut their losses.
When the $TRUMP contract was announced, it was daytime in Asia but late at night in the U.S., creating a difference in information flow. Asian traders had time to jump in during the first wave, while U.S. East Coast investors saw the news in the morning when the price had already surged several times. Data shows that nearly half of the addresses that made over a million dollars in profit during the early stages were from Chinese-speaking communities.
Unlike traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market operates 24/7, with blockchain transactions happening simultaneously across the globe. Time zone differences often determine the outcome in short-term market movementsâAsiaâs morning usually corresponds to the late night in the Americas, and vice versa. Traders who can âmonitor the market longerâ often gain a first-mover advantage.
Platforms like Moonshot, specializing in Meme coins, once ranked highly in the North American app download charts. OTC (over-the-counter) trading also became unusually active. Many newcomers, struggling to understand the process of using on-chain wallets and the exchange mechanisms, sought help from âexperts.â This created an opportunity for others to profit by offering âwater sellingâ services. These individuals made money by charging a fee for teaching others how to buy $TRUMP, raking in substantial sums in a short period.
Tip: The term âwater sellerâ comes from the gold rush era, referring to those who profited by selling shovels and supplies to miners. In the crypto world, the analogy holds: when many retail investors rush into the market, those providing training, technical services, or token listing evaluations can make significant profits. Their earnings are less dependent on the rise and fall of tokens and more on the âinformation asymmetry.â
Experienced on-chain players are often equipped with monitoring tools and idle capital, enabling them to quickly enter a promising project and exit at the peak to lock in profits. Some even boast about making returns of multiples or even tens of times their initial investment on social media, sparking further participation from ordinary investors. This creates a classic âsecond-tier, third-tier buyerâ chain of reactions.
Many are afraid of missing out on the next potential 100x opportunity, going as far as mortgaging their homes, selling their cars, or liquidating other assets to raise funds and enter the market. The âget-rich-quickâ mentality rapidly spread within the community.
Tip: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) refers to the anxiety people experience about missing out on an opportunity, which leads them to chase rising prices blindly. Meme coin markets often capitalize on this psychology to drive explosive surges, only to see a sudden pullback afterward.
Many first-time cryptocurrency participants lack professional trading skills or blockchain knowledge. After rushing in, they either find themselves stuck at the top by chasing high prices or become bewildered by the marketâs wild fluctuations. Many assume that a âpresidential coinâ is inherently backed by official endorsement, underestimating the possibility of the project team selling off their holdings at any time.
Traditional and crypto media outlets have heavily focused on $TRUMP, often reporting on it with mockery or astonishment, while serious discussions have been relatively scarce. Industry leaders, such as those from Bitcoin Magazine and Messari, have openly questioned whether Trump is exploiting his influence to profit indirectly by leveraging blockchain technology. This undermines the confidence of some retail investors and casts a shadow on the credibility of the crypto industry as a whole.
Some perspectives suggest that the Trump family may not be solely driven by money. They might use cryptocurrency as a testing ground to see whether the U.S. financial system and regulators can tolerate such a high-profile âpolitical token.â It is also possible that this is a scheme between the president and a few capital giants to quickly extract liquidity from the market.
On social media, some have called for legal action against Trump, accusing him of using his political position to deceive the public.
American history has seen several periods of political and business collusion and rampant wealth accumulation, often called the âGilded Age.â Many media commentators are drawing parallels between $TRUMP and the speculative frenzies of those times. The key difference is that, this time, the crypto assets lack the regulatory safety valves of traditional finance, and their spread and impact are far more intense.
The fact that the president has begun extracting from global retail investors before even being officially sworn in has led many to question whether the U.S. Constitution or laws impose enough restrictions on the presidentâs power. If the highest office can freely raise funds under the guise of blockchain, what boundaries remain between âpolitical corruptionâ and âfinancial fraudâ?
If the U.S. Congress, the SEC, or the judicial authorities intervene in an investigation, they may order exchanges to delist $TRUMP or freeze related wallets. If the team is found guilty of insider trading or conflicts of interest, the project team and investors could face substantial losses. There is no precedent for a âpresidential token,â and the legal vacuum surrounding this situation introduces higher uncertainty.
The team and associated large holders control 80% of the tokens. If they decide to sell, they could cause a market cap evaporation of billions of dollars within hours. Ordinary investors find it difficult to predict when a large dump might occur.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the lack of transparency regarding the teamâs plans is like âflying blind,â which could result in disastrous outcomes for traders.
Meme tokens primarily rely on community confidence and sentiment. If the public opinion shifts or new hot tokens emerge, the marketâs enthusiasm could rapidly decline, causing a stampede-like price drop.
Derivative tokens such as $MELANIA could potentially âsiphonâ value from $TRUMP, with investors frequently switching between tokens, destabilizing the entire sector.
The popularity of $TRUMP has attracted many traditional finance users and newcomers to the blockchain ecosystem. Some may continue exploring DeFi, NFTs, and other broader fields after short-term speculation, which could bring more innovation and opportunities for practical applications in the crypto industry.
This projectâs controversy and high profile might force U.S. legislators to address the legality of political figures engaging in cryptocurrency projects. It could also lead to a faster clarification of regulatory rules for the crypto market.
If compliance measures are implemented, it could help clean up the industry in the long term, eliminating scams and Ponzi schemes and improving overall quality.
Politicians and business figures might follow suit by âissuing tokens,â further propelling the meme token spaceâs growth. Investors who can seize the early opportunities of hot topics might still see substantial short-term gains. However, with the rapid spread of celebrity influence and social media, new token bubbles may emerge and collapse much faster.
To engage with tokens like $TRUMP or other similar meme coins, it is essential to have professional on-chain monitoring capabilities to track whale addresses and the teamâs token transfer activity in real time. Quick buy or sell decisions must be made when large transfers or abnormal sell orders are detected. Below are common monitoring methods and tools:
Blockchain Explorers:
By entering the contract address or whale wallet address, you can monitor transaction dynamics and balance changes in real-time.
Professional Data Analysis Platforms:
Social Media and Alert Bots:
Blindly chasing high prices can lead to flash crashes, so itâs crucial to set and strictly adhere to a stop-loss and take-profit strategy in advance to avoid being unable to exit when trading volume drops drastically. The following strategies can be considered:
Price Triggers:
Time Triggers:
Position Management:
In addition to monitoring on-chain large transfers and unlock schedules, keep a close eye on the following factors:
Since $TRUMP lacks substantial use cases and its price is mainly driven by political news and community sentiment, investing only a small amount of funds that can be affordably lost is advisable. Focus on swing trading and avoid unrealistic expectations of the projectâs intrinsic value. The â100x mythâ often cannot last for long.
The ability of the team to unlock tokens quickly or conduct large-scale off-market sales is crucial for determining future market performance. If the U.S. government initiates investigations or imposes regulatory constraints, the price may remain depressed for an extended period. Investors should closely follow the relevant policy developments and carefully assess the holding period.
For those unfamiliar with the meme coin space, itâs advisable to allocate most assets to relatively stable blockchain projects like BTC and ETH, while treating meme coins as a âhigh-risk side trackâ for experimentation.
With meme coins constantly emerging, itâs important to stay vigilant, gather information, and manage risks effectively to respond to sudden market fluctuations.
$TRUMP has the potential to solidify further retail investorsâ trust in the âcelebrity effect,â possibly encouraging more politicians to follow suit and launch their own tokens. However, high-frequency speculative trading and extreme price fluctuations can quickly lead to a loss of enthusiasm, causing the industry to reshuffle and differentiate.
With the President personally issuing a token, the U.S. government is now forced to confront a new reality: How can officials or candidates profit within the virtual asset space? How do legislative or executive orders apply? This could lead to stricter control over capital flows, or prompt more institutions to scrutinize the legality and compliance of crypto projects.
Cryptocurrency finance has the potential to break traditional financial barriers, but a few can also exploit it. Extreme cases like $TRUMP have driven the industry to reflect on important questions: Can decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) improve information disclosure? Can contract audits prevent abuse? How can we protect the public from being ruthlessly exploited in speculative waves?
The potential conflict of interest between the Trump family and the presidency could spark new lawsuits. Whether the âmonetization of the presidential positionâ affects the global credibility of U.S. politics remains an unresolved question. The issuance of a token by a sitting president challenges traditional political norms and raises concerns about the abuse of political power for personal financial gain.
In a very short period, significant capital shifted from other crypto assets to $TRUMP, leading to a âvampire effectâ on mainstream and altcoins. If retail investors suffer heavy losses, it could trigger a chain reaction, diminishing overall investment and consumer confidence in the market. This shift could affect the broader crypto ecosystem, as well as the willingness of the general public to engage with cryptocurrency.
Social media-driven group hysteria and cognitive biases were amplified once again. Many people now view the crypto industry as more deeply entrenched as a âspeculative bubble,â reinforcing negative perceptions. Additionally, the tolerance for public officials monetizing their influence has been tested in this instance. This event forces society to grapple with the ethical implications of political figures utilizing their position to benefit financially from emerging technologies.
The rise and subsequent crash of $TRUMP highlights the potential of meme tokens to trigger unprecedented capital flows, particularly when supported by political figures. However, it also underscores the glaring lack of self-regulation and ethical standards within the cryptocurrency industry. With the U.S. president personally launching the token, retail investors were trapped by blind trust at high prices, leading to a significant transfer of funds to a few large holders. The Trump family has since been labeled with harsh terms such as âpump and dump,â âextracting liquidity,â and âprofit-seeking.â
In light of this speculative frenzy, the key challenge is maintaining rationality and addressing issues of ethics and compliance at the government level, which remain pressing concerns for the crypto world.
Research Recommendations:
This section closes with an emphasis on regulatory clarity and transparency, particularly when political figures are involved in crypto projects. It also highlights the volatile nature of meme tokens, urging investors to adopt caution and be mindful of the associated risks.